I know this is not a Real Estate related topic, but I think it is important enough to put into my blog today!  I got this email this morning from the State Department and it looks like things in Mexico have gone from bad to worse.  Anyone traveling back and forth from Mexico, U.S. citizens or not, should be very cautious and even reconsider, it’s just not worth it to get into a bad situation that could be lethal.  But if you have to travel to Mexico here are some very good tips to help keep you safe.  Please take a moment to study this and check out the areas where the crimes are most abundant.

April 22, 2011

The Department of State has issued this Travel Warning to inform U.S. citizens traveling to and living in Mexico about the security situation in Mexico. This Travel Warning supersedes the Travel Warning for Mexico dated September 10, 2010 to consolidate and update information about the security situation and to advise the public of additional restrictions on the travel of U.S. government personnel.

Millions of U.S. citizens safely visit Mexico each year, including more than 150,000 who cross the border every day for study, tourism or business and at least one million U.S. citizens who live in Mexico. The Mexican government makes a considerable effort to protect U.S. citizens and other visitors to major tourist destinations. Resort areas and tourist destinations in Mexico generally do not see the levels of drug-related violence and crime reported in the border region and in areas along major trafficking routes. Nevertheless, crime and violence are serious problems and can occur anywhere. While most victims of violence are Mexican citizens associated with criminal activity, the security situation poses serious risks for U.S. citizens as well.

It is imperative that you understand the risks involved in travel to Mexico and how best to avoid dangerous situations. Common-sense precautions such as visiting only legitimate business and tourist areas during daylight hours, and avoiding areas where criminal activity might occur, can help ensure that travel to Mexico is safe and enjoyable.

General Conditions

Since 2006, the Mexican government has engaged in an extensive effort to combat transnational criminal organizations (TCOs). The TCOs, meanwhile, have been engaged in a vicious struggle to control drug trafficking routes and other criminal activity. According to Government of Mexico figures, 34,612 people have been killed in narcotics-related violence in Mexico since December 2006. More than 15,000 narcotics-related homicides occurred in 2010, an increase of almost two-thirds compared to 2009. Most of those killed in narcotics-related violence since 2006 have been members of TCOs. However, innocent persons have also been killed as have Mexican law enforcement and military personnel.

There is no evidence that U.S. tourists have been targeted by criminal elements due to their citizenship. Nonetheless, while in Mexico you should be aware of your surroundings at all times and exercise particular caution in unfamiliar areas. Bystanders, including U.S. citizens, have been injured or killed in violent incidents in various parts of the country, especially, but not exclusively in the northern border region, demonstrating the heightened risk of violence throughout Mexico. TCOs, meanwhile, engage in a wide-range of criminal activities that can directly impact U.S. citizens, including kidnapping, armed car-jacking, and extortion that can directly impact U.S. citizens. The number of U.S. citizens reported to the Department of State as murdered in Mexico increased from 35 in 2007 to 111 in 2010.

The Mexican government has deployed federal police and military personnel throughout the country as part of its efforts to combat the TCOs. U.S. citizens traveling on Mexican roads and highways may encounter government checkpoints, which are often staffed by military personnel. You are advised to cooperate with personnel at government checkpoints and mobile military patrols. TCOs have erected their own unauthorized checkpoints, and killed or abducted motorists who have failed to stop at them.

Violence along Mexican roads and highways is a particular concern in the northern border region. As a result, effective July 15, 2010, the U.S. Mission in Mexico imposed restrictions on U.S. government employees’ travel. U.S. government employees and their families are not permitted to drive from the U.S.-Mexico border to or from the interior of Mexico or Central America. Travel by vehicle is permitted between Hermosillo and Nogales.

While violent incidents have occurred at all hours of the day and night on both modern toll (“cuotas”) highways and on secondary roads, they have occurred most frequently at night and on isolated roads. To reduce risk, you are strongly urged to travel only during daylight hours throughout Mexico, to avoid isolated roads, and to use toll roads whenever possible. For more information on road safety and crime along Mexico’s roadways, see the Department of State’s Country Specific Information.

Due to ongoing violence and persistent security concerns, you are urged to defer non-essential travel to the states of Tamaulipas and Michoacán, and to parts of the states of Sonora, Chihuahua, Coahuila, Sinaloa, Durango, Zacatecas, San Luis Potosi and Jalisco. Details on these locations, and other areas in which travelers should exercise caution, are below.

Violence along the U.S. – Mexico Border

You should be especially aware of safety and security concerns when visiting the northern border states of Northern Baja California, Sonora, Chihuahua, Nuevo Leon, and Tamaulipas. Much of the country’s narcotics-related violence has occurred in the border region. More than a third of all U.S. citizens killed in Mexico in 2010 whose deaths were reported to the U.S. government were killed in the border cities of Ciudad Juarez and Tijuana. Narcotics-related homicide rates in the border states of Nuevo Leon and Tamaulipas have increased dramatically in the past two years.

Carjacking and highway robbery are serious problems in many parts of the border region and U.S. citizens have been murdered in such incidents. Most victims who complied with carjackers at these checkpoints have reported that they were not physically harmed. Incidents have occurred during the day and at night, and carjackers have used a variety of techniques, including bumping moving vehicles to force them to stop and running vehicles off the road at high speed. There are some indications that criminals have particularly targeted newer and larger vehicles with U.S. license plates, especially dark-colored SUVs. However, victims’ vehicles have included those with both Mexican and American registration and vary in type from late model SUVs and pick-up trucks to old sedans.

If you make frequent visits to border cities, you should vary your route and park in well-lighted, guarded and paid parking lots. Exercise caution when entering or exiting vehicles.

Large firefights between rival TCOs or TCOs and Mexican authorities have taken place in towns and cities in many parts of Mexico, especially in the border region. Firefights have occurred in broad daylight on streets and in other public venues, such as restaurants and clubs. During some of these incidents, U.S. citizens have been trapped and temporarily prevented from leaving the area. The location and timing of future armed engagements cannot be predicted. You are urged to defer travel to those areas mentioned in this Travel Warning and to exercise extreme caution when traveling throughout the northern border region.

Northern Baja California: Targeted TCO assassinations continue to take place in Northern Baja California, including the city of Tijuana. You should exercise caution in this area, particularly at night. In late 2010, turf battles between criminal groups proliferated and resulted in numerous assassinations in areas of Tijuana frequented by U.S. citizens. Shooting incidents, in which innocent bystanders have been injured, have occurred during daylight hours throughout the city. In one such incident, an American citizen was shot and seriously wounded.

Nogales and Northern Sonora: You are advised to exercise caution in the city of Nogales. Northern Sonora is a key region in the international drug and human trafficking trades, and can be extremely dangerous for travelers. The U.S. Consulate requires that armored vehicles are used for official travel in the consular district of Nogales, including certain areas within the city of Nogales. The region west of Nogales, east of Sonoyta, and from Caborca north, including the towns of Saric, Tubutama and Altar, and the eastern edge of Sonora bordering Chihuahua, are known centers of illegal activity. You should defer non-essential travel to these areas.

You are advised to exercise caution when visiting the coastal town of Puerto Peñasco. In the past year there have been multiple incidents of TCO-related violence, including the shooting of the city’s police chief. U.S. citizens visiting Puerto Peñasco are urged to cross the border at Lukeville, AZ, to limit driving through Mexico and to limit travel to main roads during daylight hours.

Ciudad Juarez and Chihuahua: The situation in the state of Chihuahua, specifically Ciudad Juarez, is of special concern. Ciudad Juarez has the highest murder rate in Mexico. Mexican authorities report that more than 3,100 people were killed in Ciudad Juarez in 2010. Three persons associated with the Consulate General were murdered in March, 2010. You should defer non-essential travel to Ciudad Juarez and to the Guadalupe Bravo area southeast of Ciudad Juarez. U.S. citizens should also defer non-essential travel to the northwest quarter of the state of Chihuahua. From the United States, these areas are often reached through the Columbus, NM, and Fabens and Fort Hancock, TX, ports-of-entry. In both areas, U.S. citizens have been victims of narcotics-related violence. There have been incidents of narcotics-related violence in the vicinity of the Copper Canyon in Chihuahua.

Durango, Coahuila and Zacatecas: Between 2006 and 2010, the number of narcotics-related murders in the State of Durango increased dramatically. Several areas in the state have seen sharp increases in violence and remain volatile and unpredictable. U.S. government employees are restricted from traveling to the cities of Durango and Gomez Palacio. You should defer non-essential travel to these cities.

The State of Coahuila has also experienced an increase in violent crimes and narcotics-related murders. U.S. government employees are restricted from traveling to the area known as “La Laguna”, including the city of Torreon, and the city of Saltillo within the state. You should defer non-essential travel to this area, as well as to the cities of Piedras Negras and Ciudad Acuña due to frequent incidents of TCO-related violence.

The northwestern portion of the state of Zacatecas has become notably dangerous and insecure. Robberies and carjackings are occurring with increased frequency and both local authorities and residents have reported a surge in observed TCO activity. This area is remote, and local authorities are unable to regularly patrol it or quickly respond to incidents that occur there. The Consulate General in Monterrey restricts travel for U.S. government employees to the city of Fresnillo and the area extending northwest from Fresnillo along Highway 45 (Fresnillo-Sombrete) between Highways 44 and 49. In addition, highway 49 northwards from Fresnillo through Durango and in to Chihuahua is isolated and should be considered dangerous. You should defer non-essential travel to these areas.

Monterrey and Nuevo Leon: The level of violence and insecurity in Monterrey remains elevated. Local police and private patrols do not have the capacity to deter criminal elements or respond effectively to security incidents. As a result of a Department of State assessment of the overall security situation, on September 10, 2010, the Consulate General in Monterrey became a partially unaccompanied post with no minor dependents of U.S. government employees permitted.

TCOs continue to use stolen cars and trucks to create roadblocks or “blockades” on major thoroughfares, preventing the military or police from responding to criminal activity in Monterrey and the surrounding areas. Travelers on the highways between Monterrey and the United States (notably through Nuevo Laredo and Matamoros/Reynosa) have been targeted for robbery that has resulted in violence. They have also been caught in incidents of gunfire between criminals and Mexican law enforcement. In 2010, TCOs kidnapped guests out of reputable hotels in the downtown Monterrey area, blocking off adjoining streets to prevent law enforcement response. TCOs have also regularly attacked local government facilities, prisons and police stations, and engaged in public shootouts with the military and between themselves. Pedestrians and innocent bystanders have been killed in these incidents.

The number of kidnappings and disappearances in Monterrey, and increasingly throughout Monterrey’s consular district, is of particular concern. Both the local and expatriate communities have been victimized and local law enforcement has provided little to no response. In addition, police have been implicated in some of these incidents. Travelers and residents are strongly advised to lower their profile and avoid displaying any evidence of wealth that might draw attention.

Tamaulipas: You should defer non-essential travel to the state of Tamaulipas. In an effort to prevent the military or police from responding to criminal activity, TCOs have set up roadblocks or “blockades” in various parts of Nuevo Laredo in which armed gunmen carjack and rob unsuspecting drivers. These blockades occur without warning and at all times, day and night. The Consulate General prohibits employees from entering the entertainment zone in Nuevo Laredo known as “Boys Town” because of concerns about violent crime in that area. U.S. government employees are currently restricted from travelling on the highway between Nuevo Laredo and Monterrey, as well as on Mexican Highway 2 towards Reynosa or Ciudad Acuña due to security concerns.

Be aware of the risks posed by armed robbery and carjacking on state highways throughout Tamaulipas. In January 2011, a U.S. citizen was murdered in what appears to have been a failed carjacking attempt. While no highway routes through Tamaulipas are considered safe, many of the crimes reported to the U.S. Consulate General in Matamoros took place along the Matamoros-Tampico highway, particularly around San Fernando and the area north of Tampico.

Crime and Violence in Other Parts of Mexico

While security concerns are particularly acute in the northern border region, you should be aware of situations that could affect your safety in other parts of Mexico.

Sinaloa and Southern Sonora: One of Mexico’s most powerful TCOs is based in the state of Sinaloa. Since 2006, more homicides have occurred in the state’s capital city of Culiacan than in any other city in Mexico, with the exception of Ciudad Juarez. You should defer non-essential travel to Culiacan and exercise extreme caution when visiting the rest of the state. Travel off the toll roads in remote areas of Sinaloa is especially dangerous and should be avoided.

In the last year, the city of Mazatlan has experienced a level of violence, primarily confrontations between TCOs, not seen before. In 2010 there were over 300 narcotics-related murders within the city, compared to fewer than 100 in 2009. You are encouraged to visit Mazatlan during daylight hours and limit the time you spend outside tourist centers. Exercise caution during late night and early morning hours when most violent crimes occur.

Highway robbery and carjacking are ongoing security concerns for travelers on the Mexican toll road Highway 15 in Sonora and on Maxipista Benito Juarez in Sinaloa. These highways are known to be particularly dangerous at night when roadside robberies occur. When traveling in Sinaloa, U.S. government employees are required to use armored vehicles and may only travel in daylight hours.

San Luis Potosi: In February 2011, one U.S. government employee was killed and another wounded when they were attacked in their U.S. government vehicle on Highway 57 near Santa Maria del Rio. The incident remains under investigation. Cartel violence and highway lawlessness have increased throughout the state and are a continuing security concern. All official U.S. government employees and their families have been advised to defer travel on the entire stretch of highway 57D in San Luis Potosi as well as travel in the state east of highway 57D towards Tamaulipas. You should defer non-essential travel in these areas.

Nayarit and Jalisco: Official U.S. government employees are prohibited from traveling to Colotlan, Jalisco, and Yahualica, Jalisco, both near the Zacatecas border, because of an increasingly volatile security situation. Concerns include roadblocks placed by individuals posing as police or military personnel and recent gun battles between rival TCOs involving automatic weapons. You should defer non-essential travel to these cities. In addition, the border areas between Jalisco state and the states of Zacatecas and Michoacán, as well as southern Nayarit state including the city of Tepic, have been sites of violence and crime involving TCOs. You should exercise extreme caution when traveling in these areas. Due to recent TCO-mounted road blockades between the Guadalajara airport and the Guadalajara metropolitan areas, U.S. government employees are only authorized to travel between Guadalajara and the Guadalajara Airport during daylight hours.

Michoacán: You should defer non-essential travel to the State of Michoacán, which is home to another of Mexico’s most dangerous TCOs, “La Familia”. Attacks on government officials and law enforcement and military personnel, and other incidents of TCO-related violence, have occurred throughout Michoacan, including in and around the capital of Morelia and in the vicinity of the world famous butterfly sanctuaries in the eastern part of the State.

Guerrero and Morelos: You should exercise extreme caution when traveling in the northwestern part of the state of Guerrero, which has a strong TCO presence. Do not take the dangerous, isolated road through Ciudad Altamirano to the beach resorts of Ixtapa and Zihuatanejo and exercise caution traveling on the coastal road between Acapulco and Ixtapa due to the risk of roadblocks and carjackings. Numerous incidents of narcotics-related violence have occurred in the city of Cuernavaca, in the State of Morelos, a popular destination for American language students.

Downtown Acapulco and surrounding areas have seen a significant increase in narcotics-related violence in the last year. Incidents have included daylight gunfights and murders of law enforcement personnel and some have resulted in the deaths of innocent bystanders. Due to the unpredictable nature of this violence, you should exercise extreme caution when visiting downtown Acapulco. To reduce risks, tourists should not visit the downtown area at night and should remain in clearly identifiable tourist areas. In general, the popular tourist area of Diamante just south of the city has not been affected by the increasing violence.

Further Information

You are encouraged to review the U.S. Embassy’s Mexico Security Update. The update contains information about recent security incidents in Mexico that could affect the safety of the traveling public.

For more detailed information on staying safe in Mexico, please see the State Department’s Country Specific Information for Mexico. Information on security and travel to popular tourist destinations is also provided in the publication: Spring Break in Mexico – Know Before You Go!

For the latest security information, U.S. citizens traveling abroad should regularly monitor the State Department’s internet web site, where the current Worldwide Caution, Travel Warnings, and Travel Alerts can be found. Follow us on Twitter and the Bureau of Consular Affairs page on Facebook as well. Up-to-date information on security can also be obtained by calling 1-888-407-4747 toll free in the United States and Canada or, for callers outside the United States and Canada, a regular toll line at 001-202-501-4444. These numbers are available from 8:00 a.m. to 8:00 p.m. Eastern Time, Monday through Friday (except U.S. federal holidays). U.S. citizens traveling or residing overseas are encouraged to enroll with the State Department’s Smart Traveler Enrollment Program at travel.state.gov. For any emergencies involving U.S. citizens in Mexico, please contact the U.S. Embassy or the closest U.S. Consulate. The numbers provided below for the Embassy and Consulates are available around the clock. The U.S. Embassy is located in Mexico City at Paseo de la Reforma 305, Colonia Cuauhtemoc, telephone from the United States: 011-52-55-5080-2000; telephone within Mexico City: 5080-2000; telephone long distance within Mexico 01-55-5080-2000. You may also contact the Embassy by e-mail at ACSMexicoCity@state.gov.

Consulates (with consular districts):

• Ciudad Juarez (Chihuahua): Paseo de la Victoria 3650, tel. (011)(52)(656) 227-3000.

• Guadalajara (Nayarit, Jalisco, Aguas Calientes, and Colima): Progreso 175, telephone (011)(52)(333) 268-2100.

• Hermosillo (Sinaloa and the southern part of the state of Sonora): Avenida Monterrey 141, telephone (011)(52)(662) 289-3500.

• Matamoros (the southern part of Tamaulipas with the exception of the city of Tampico): Avenida Primera 2002, telephone (011)(52)(868) 812-4402.

• Merida (Campeche, Yucatan, and Quintana Roo): Calle 60 no. 338-K x 29 y 31, Col. Alcala Martin, Merida, Yucatan, Mexico 97050, telephone (011)(52)(999) 942-5700 or 202-250-3711 (U.S. number).

• Monterrey (Nuevo Leon, Durango, Zacatecas, San Luis Potosi, and the southern part of Coahuila): Avenida Constitucion 411 Poniente, telephone (011)(52)(818) 047-3100.

• Nogales (the northern part of Sonora): Calle San Jose, Nogales, Sonora, telephone (011)(52)(631) 311-8150.

• Nuevo Laredo (the northern part of Coahuila and the northwestern part of Tamaulipas): Calle Allende 3330, col. Jardin, telephone (011)(52)(867) 714-0512.

• Tijuana (Baja California Norte and Baja California Sur): Tapachula 96, telephone (011)(52)(664) 622-7400.

All other Mexican states, and the Federal District of Mexico City, are part of the Embassy’s consular district.

Consular Agencies:

• Acapulco: Hotel Emporio, Costera Miguel Aleman 121 – Suite 14, telephone (011)(52)(744) 481-0100 or (011)(52)(744) 484-0300.

• Cabo San Lucas: Blvd. Marina local c-4, Plaza Nautica, col. Centro, telephone (011)(52)(624) 143-3566.

• Cancún: Blvd. Kukulcan Km 13 ZH Torre La Europea, Despacho 301 Cancun, Quintana Roo, Mexico C.P. 77500; telephone (011)(52)(998) 883-0272.Ciudad Acuña: Closed until further notice.

• Cozumel: Plaza Villa Mar en el Centro, Plaza Principal, (Parque Juárez between Melgar and 5th ave.) 2nd floor, locales #8 and 9, telephone (011)(52)(987) 872-4574 or, 202-459-4661 (a U.S. number).

• Ixtapa/Zihuatanejo: Hotel Fontan, Blvd. Ixtapa, telephone (011)(52)(755) 553-2100.

• Mazatlán: Playa Gaviotas #202, Zona Dorada, telephone (011)(52)(669) 916-5889.

• Oaxaca: Macedonio Alcalá no. 407, interior 20, telephone (011)(52)(951) 514-3054, (011) (52)(951) 516-2853.

• Piedras Negras: Abasolo #211, Zona Centro, Piedras Negras, Coah., Tel. (011)(52)(878) 782-5586.

• Playa del Carmen: “The Palapa,” Calle 1 Sur, between Avenida 15 and Avenida 20, telephone (011)(52)(984) 873-0303 or 202-370-6708(a U.S. number).

• Puerto Vallarta: Paradise Plaza, Paseo de los Cocoteros #1, Local #4, Interior #17, Nuevo Vallarta, Nayarit, telephone (011)(52)(322) 222-0069.

• Reynosa: Calle Monterrey #390, Esq. Sinaloa, Colonia Rodríguez, telephone: (011)(52)(899) 923 – 9331.

• San Luis Potosí: Edificio “Las Terrazas”, Avenida Venustiano Carranza 2076-41, Col. Polanco, telephone: (011)(52)(444) 811-7802/7803.

• San Miguel de Allende: Dr. Hernandez Macias #72, telephone (011)(52)(415) 152-2357 or (011)(52)(415) 152-0068.

Are loan mods the solution….well, no.

Not if you consider the fact that its widely believed that up to 75% of all loan mods will re-default.

Agents who are speaking with potential short sale sellers, what is one of the top reasons sellers give for not listing their home?

“We want to try a loan modification”

Share this article with your howeowners. Let them know that statistically very few mortgage loan modifications actually work beyond the initial period.

What homeowners don’t understand is that they will often be required to forfeit many ‘rights’ they may have. For example, we have seen loan modifications that literally make it so if the homeowner misses (or is late) on ONE payment during the trail mod their home is rushed into foreclosure, don’t stop at GO. Additionally, its a rare mod indeed that actually cancels out the negative equity. In other words, the mod may lower the payment temporarily but, the negative equity is still there.

Another fun fact, most mortgage loan modification are only for 3-5 years with a balloon payment often times including ALL that they still owed including their late fees, missed payments….etc

And don’t forget, homeowners have to qualify for a loan mod. Its treated like a fully documented loan application. Many homeowners won’t qualify for the home that they are currently living in!

Loan Modifications are clearly not what people think. Understand what mods are and aren’t…counsel your homeowners so they know what they are signing themselves up for.

Its no wonder why, up to 70% of all loan mods fail…..

Source: SNL.com

Economists and analysts predict redefaults will severely plague loan modifications, including one projection that 70% of all modifications will fail.

In a recent report projecting the level of shadow inventory in the housing market, Standard & Poor’s analysts noted that they assumed a 70% redefault rate on loan modifications in the study.

Diane Westerback, S&P’s managing director of global surveillance analytics, told SNL that the previously reported 30% to 40% redefault rates typically only count borrowers after two or three months of payments. A year after the modification, Westerback expects redefaults to hit between 60% and 70%.

See Above comments for just a few of the reasons why loan mods fail…

“I’ve always taken the position that if a guy pays for a year, he’s really made it. If he makes a few payments, you don’t really know,” she said.

Fitch Ratings on June 16 issued similar projections, albeit only for subprime and Alt-A loans in RMBS. The rating agency projects modifications on those product types to redefault at a 65% to 75% range, while prime loans in RMBS are expected to redefault at a rate of 55% to 65%.

Fitch said the government’s Home Affordable Modification Program appears to be “falling far short” of its stated goals, with Managing Director Diane Pendley noting in a news release that changes to the program mean “final determination of the program’s ultimate effectiveness will continue to be delayed.”

Where does all of this go….what happens to all of these failed loan modification? Millions of those homes will become short sale listings.

Agents, are you finally ready to learn the new ways to list and sell short sales? Chances are you have learned the very basics of how to do short sales…maybe, you have even successfully closed a few short sales. Its obvious that helping homeowners avoid foreclosure by selling their home as a short sale is one of this markets greatest opportunities.

The most recent mortgage metrics performance report released by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and the Office of Thrift Supervision showed stronger performance as of the 2009 fourth quarter than Fitch and S&P expect. Redefaults three months after modification have fallen to 14.7% for modifications completed in the 2009 third quarter from 35.1% for 2008 third-quarter modifications.

The report posted two redefault rates for a year after modification: 60.7% for 2008 third-quarter modifications and 57.9% for 2008 fourth-quarter ones.

A spokesman for the Office of Thrift Supervision told SNL that a new mortgage metrics report will be released in the next week or two, with the agency shooting for a June 23 release date.

A pair of economists told SNL that they do not consider a 70% redefault rate on loan modifications outlandish.

James Hamilton, a professor of economics at the University of California, San Diego, told SNL that concerted efforts to keep unsustainable loans out of foreclosure will translate to high redefault rates over the near term.

“I think I would rather err on the side of using too big a number,” Hamilton said.

In fact, Hamilton might be more pessimistic than Westerback, whose expectation of an up to 70% redefault rate is based on historical trends. “To the extent that we were modifying loans that historically you would have just given up on, that would make you suspect that the ultimate failure rate on those modifications would be higher than the historical rate,” Hamilton said.

Dean Baker, co-director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research, is not any sunnier on the outlook for loan modifications. On the 70% redefault projection, Baker told SNL that “it certainly doesn’t strike me as an absurd number. It’s certainly a very high number, but it’s not obviously unreasonable.”

Rather than historical trends, Baker attributes his pessimism on loan modifications to a naggingly high unemployment rate and chronic negative equity exacerbated by a renewal in falling prices.

Even on permanent HAMP modifications, Baker said, “I think you’re still going to be at a high redefault rate. Again, it’s both the weakness of the economy and you have so many people who are going to be underwater on their mortgages. You have limited incentive to struggle and pay your mortgage if you’re underwater. And that’s the situation a lot of people are going to be in.”

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WASHINGTON (March 21, 2011) – Existing-home sales fell in February following three straight monthly increases, according to the National Association of REALTORS®.

Existing-home sales¹, which are completed transactions that include single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, dropped 9.6 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.88 million in February from an upwardly revised 5.40 million in January, and are 2.8 percent below the 5.02 million pace in February 2010.

Lawrence Yun NAR chief economist, expects an uneven recovery.  “Housing affordability conditions have been at record levels and the economy has been improving, but home sales are being constrained by the twin problems of unnecessarily tight credit, and a measurable level of contract cancellations from some appraisals not supporting prices negotiated between buyers and sellers,” he said.  “This tug and pull is causing a gradual but uneven recovery.  Existing-home sales remain 26.4 percent above the cyclical low last July.”

A parallel NAR practitioner survey² shows first-time buyers purchased 34 percent of homes in February, up from 29 percent in January; they were 42 percent in February 2010.

All-cash sales were a record 33 percent in February, up from 32 percent in January; they were 27 percent in February 2010.  Investors accounted for 19 percent of sales activity in February, down from 23 percent in January; they were 19 percent in February 2010.  The balance of sales were to repeat buyers.

The national median existing-home price³ for all housing types was $156,100 in February, which is 5.2 percent below February 2010.  Distressed homes – sold at discount – accounted for a 39 percent market share in February, up from 37 percent in January and 35 percent in February 2010.  “The decline in price corresponds to the record level of all-cash purchases where buyers – largely investors – are snapping up homes at bargain prices,” Yun explained.  “We’d be seeing greater numbers of traditional home buyers if mortgage credit conditions return to normal.”

NAR President Ron Phipps, broker-president of Phipps Realty in Warwick, R.I., said buyers should look into loan availability as soon as they decide they want to buy.  “Despite very affordable mortgage interest rates, credit remains a challenge – buyers should check their personal credit, and mortgage availability in their area,” he said.

“REALTORS® are an excellent resource to learn about all of the marketplace factors, but in this tight credit environment it’s important to learn up front what a lender might be willing to offer as well as specific programs that might be available in your location,” Phipps said.

Total housing inventory at the end of February rose 3.5 percent to 3.49 million existing homes available for sale, which represents an 8.6-month supply⁴ at the current sales pace, up from a 7.5-month supply in January.

According to Freddie Mac, the national average commitment rate for a 30-year, conventional, fixed-rate mortgage rose to 4.95 percent in February from 4.76 percent in January; the rate was 4.99 percent in February 2010.

Single-family home sales fell 9.6 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.25 million in February from 4.70 million in January, and are 2.7 percent below the 4.37 million pace in February 2010.  The median existing single-family home price was $157,000 in February, which is 4.2 percent below a year ago.

Existing condominium and co-op sales dropped 10.0 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 630,000 in February from 700,000 in January, and are 3.1 percent lower than the 650,000-unit level one year ago.  The median existing condo price⁵ was $150,400 in February, down 11.1 percent from February 2010.

Regionally, existing-home sales in the Northeast fell 7.2 percent to an annual pace of 770,000 in February and are 8.3 percent below February 2010.  The median price in the Northeast was $230,200, down 9.5 percent from a year ago.

Existing-home sales in the Midwest dropped 12.2 percent in February to a level of 1.01 million and are 9.0 percent lower than a year ago.  The median price in the Midwest was $122,000, which is 5.4 percent below February 2010.

In the South, existing-home sales fell 10.2 percent to an annual pace of 1.84 million in February but are unchanged from February 2010.  The median price in the South was $134,600, down 3.9 percent from a year ago.

Existing-home sales in the West declined 8.0 percent to an annual level of 1.26 million in February and are 2.4 percent below a year ago.  The median price in the West was $190,000, which is 5.2 percent below January 2010.

The National Association of REALTORS®, “The Voice for Real Estate,” is America’s largest trade association, representing 1.1 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.

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NOTE: NAR also tracks monthly comparisons of existing single-family home sales and median prices for select metropolitan statistical areas, which is posted with other tables at: www.realtor.org/research/research/ehsdata. For information on areas not included in the report, please contact the local association of REALTORS®.

HOUSTON — (April 19, 2011) — In what reads like a carbon copy of the February housing report, local home sales fell slightly in March while the average price of those homes rose. The lower sales volume compares to sales activity in March 2010 that was driven, in part, by the federal government’s first-time home buyer tax credit incentive.

According to the latest monthly data compiled by the Houston Association of REALTORS® (HAR), March sales of single-family homes fell 4.4 percent versus one year earlier. As in February, the popular middle segments of the Houston housing market, consisting of homes priced between $80,000 and $250,000, experienced declining sales while the low and high ends saw an increase in number of sales. Compared to March of 2009, a year without unusual market factors such as Hurricane Ike in 2008 and the 2010 tax credit, single-family home sales were up 6.6 percent.

Luxury home sales boosted the average price of a single-family home for a third straight month. The average price rose 3.3 percent from March 2010 to $217,597, the highest level for a March in Houston. The March single-family home median price—the figure at which half of the homes sold for more and half sold for less—dipped 1.7 percent year-over-year to $150,900.

Foreclosure property sales reported in the Multiple Listing Service (MLS) increased 3.6 percent in March compared to one year earlier. Foreclosures comprised 23.5 percent of all property sales in March. The median price of March foreclosures fell 7.1 percent to $82,000 on a year-over-year basis.

March sales of all property types in Houston totaled 5,509, down 5.0 percent compared to March 2010. Total dollar volume for properties sold during the month declined 2.3 percent to $1.1 billion versus $1.2 billion one year earlier.

“The year-over-year March 2011-March 2010 analysis is a bit skewed in the sense that it continues to reflect a comparison to the period a year ago where the home buyer tax credit encouraged consumers to purchase a home prior to the April 30 deadline,” said Carlos P. Bujosa, HAR chairman and VP at Transwestern. “It is encouraging that properties continue to go under contract at the levels we saw last year, a time when the tax credit was a huge incentive.”

The month of March brought Houston’s overall housing market largely negative results when all listing categories are compared to March of 2010. Total property sales, total dollar volume and median price declined, while average price rose on a year-over-year basis.

Month-end pending sales for March totaled 4,190, down 1.2 percent from last year. That suggests the likelihood of lower demand when the April figures are tallied. The number of available properties, or active listings, at the end of March rose 4.2 percent from March 2010 to 51,091. The growth in available housing pushed the March inventory of single-family homes to 7.6 months compared to 6.7 months one year earlier. That means that it would take 7.6 months to sell all the single-family homes on the market based on sales activity over the past year. The figure still compares favorably to the national inventory of single-family homes of 8.6 months reported by the National Association of REALTORS® (NAR).

The computerized Multiple Listing Service of the Houston Association of REALTORS® includes residential properties and new homes listed by 26,000 REALTORS® throughout Harris, Fort Bend and Montgomery counties, as well as parts of Brazoria, Galveston, Waller and Wharton counties. Residential home sales statistics as well as listing information for more than 50,000 properties may be found on the Internet at http://www.har.com.

The information published and disseminated to the HAR Multiple Listing Services is communicated verbatim, without change by Multiple Listing Services, as filed by MLS participants.

The MLS does not verify the information provided and disclaims any responsibility for its accuracy. All data is preliminary and subject to change. Monthly sales figures reported since November 1998 includes a statistical estimation to account for late entries. Twelve-month totals may vary from actual end-of-year figures. (Single-family detached homes were broken out separately in monthly figures beginning February 1988.)

Founded in 1918, the Houston Association of REALTORS® (HAR) is a 26,000-member organization of real estate professionals engaged in every aspect of the industry, including residential and commercial sales and leasing, appraisal, property management and counseling. It is the largest individual dues-paying membership trade association in Houston as well as the second largest local association/board of REALTORS® in the United States.

Sales of homes in default or scheduled for auction prior to the completion of foreclosure had an average sales price nationwide of $192,129, a discount of 21 percent below the average sales price of non-foreclosure homes. The short sale price-cut is up from a 17 percent discount in the previous quarter and a 14 percent discount in the second quarter of 2010.

Nationally, REOs had an average sales price of $145,211, a discount of nearly 40 percent below the average sales price of non-distressed homes. The REO discount was 36 percent in the previous quarter and 34 percent in the second quarter of 2010.

Commenting on the latest short sale stats in particular, James Saccacio, RealtyTrac’s CEO, said, “The jump in pre-foreclosure sales volume coupled with bigger discounts…and a shorter average time to sell…all point to a housing market that is starting to focus on more efficiently clearing distressed inventory through more streamlined short sales.”

Saccacio says short sales “give lenders the opportunity to more pre-emptively purge non-performing loans from their portfolios and avoid the long, costly and increasingly messy process of foreclosure and the subsequent sale of an REO.”

Together, REOs and short sales accounted for 31 percent of all U.S. residential sales in the second quarter, RealtyTrac reports. That’s down from nearly 36 percent of all sales in the first quarter but up from 24 percent of all sales in the second quarter of 2010.

States with the highest percentage of foreclosure-related sales – REOs and short sales – in the second quarter include Nevada (65%), Arizona (57%), California (51%), Michigan (41%), and Georgia (38%).

States where foreclosure-related sales increased more than 30 percent between the first and second quarters include Delaware (33%), Wyoming (32%), and Iowa (30%).

**DEFINITIONS**

Home Loan Delinquency  –  loans that are more than 30 days past due, but not yet in foreclosure.

Foreclosure Inventory – mortgages that have gone to a foreclosure attorney but haven’t reached the final stage of foreclosure sale

LPS Mortgage Foreclosures in June 2011According to LPS, Lender Processing Services, the Home Loan Delinquency rate is up 8.15% in June.  2.4% higher than May and compared to June of last year, 14.7% higher.

The U.S. Foreclosure Inventory is up both on a monthly and an annual basis.  LPS states that there are 6,452,000 mortgages going unpaid in the United States.  2,167,000 are in the process of foreclosure. 4,285,000 are 1 or more payments past due and of these 1,906,000 are 90 or more days past due.

The states with the highest percentage of non-current loans are Florida, Nevada, Mississippi, New Jersey and Georgia. 

States with the lowest percentage of non-current loans are Montana, Wyoming, Alaska, South Dakota and North Dakota.